Labour hits two-year poll high as Opinium puts Burnham’s party on 30 per cent

Labour has climbed to its highest poll rating in almost two years, with a new Opinium survey putting the party on 30 per cent, five points clear of Reform UK, in the first voting-intention poll conducted after Andy Burnham’s debut conference speech as Prime Minister.

The survey of 2,050 UK adults, carried out between 30 September and 2 October, put Labour on 30 per cent, up two points on the previous week. Reform UK stood at 25 per cent, up one point, with the Conservatives unchanged on 17 per cent, the Greens on 11 per cent, up one, and the Liberal Democrats on 9 per cent, down one.

Photograph: Laurie Noble, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 3.0)

Burnham remains the only party leader with net positive approval, at plus 8, up a point on last week. Kemi Badenoch sits at minus 1, the Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey, at minus 6, while Nigel Farage and the Green leader, Zack Polanski, are the most unpopular at minus 22 each. Asked who would make the best prime minister, voters put Burnham 21 points ahead of Badenoch, with a similar lead over Farage.

Andy Burnham clearly knows how to deliver a commanding conference speech, backed by major policy announcements, that dominates the political agenda. The question now is simple: can Kemi Badenoch seize the country’s attention next week in anything like the same way?James Crouch, Opinium, 3 October 2026

The poll also tested Burnham’s conference announcements. Nearly half of adults, 48 per cent, backed the proposed National Care Service, free at the point of use and funded by general taxation, with 15 per cent opposed. His proposed change to the pensions triple lock was backed by 40 per cent and opposed by 23 per cent, with 22 per cent neither for nor against. A third of the public, 34 per cent, called the triple-lock change a fair trade-off for the care service, against 27 per cent who called it unfair.

On Europe, 54 per cent said Burnham was taking the right approach to Britain’s future relationship with the EU by considering all options, against 25 per cent who said it was the wrong approach. Some 46 per cent said Brexit had done the UK more harm than good, against 13 per cent who said it had done more good than harm and 21 per cent who said it had done equal amounts of both.

Photograph: fdecomite, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0)

The findings landed alongside a separate Messina Group megapoll of 11,461 people, conducted between 12 and 24 September, which found 49 per cent backed rejoining the EU against 28.5 per cent opposed. It also found 52.4 per cent believed Britain was wrong to leave the EU, against 29.7 per cent who believed leaving was the right decision.

Photograph: Dietmar Rabich, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY-SA 4.0)

Opinium’s head of policy and public affairs, James Crouch, said Burnham had shown he could dominate the political agenda: “Andy Burnham clearly knows how to deliver a commanding conference speech, backed by major policy announcements, that dominates the political agenda. The question now is simple: can Kemi Badenoch seize the country’s attention next week in anything like the same way?”